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The rapid shift in expectations away from multiple rate cuts this year may have created a trading opportunity around Wednesday's inflation data, according to Bank of America. We believe squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat," Kwon wrote. Specifically, there could be an opportunity to bet on the squeeze risk through the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) , Kwon said. KRE YTD mountain This regional bank ETF is underperforming the broader market year to date. Investors could position for this potential squeeze by just buying the ETF outright, though that does carry the risk of a hot inflation reading pushing regional bank stocks down.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Russell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America . Equity, Regional Banking, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, Bank of America Locations: IWM, Silicon
The consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung Kwon
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung KwonOhsung Kwon, BofA Securities Equity & Quant strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what to expect from the FOMC tomorrow, the case for dividend stocks and how the sector benefit from high rate environments.
Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Ohsung Kwon Organizations: BofA Securities Equity
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're at the start of a huge AI investment cycle, says BofA's Ohsung KwonThierry Wizman, Macquarie global interest rates & currencies strategist and Ohsung Kwon, Bank of America senior U.S. equity strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Thierry Wizman, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Macquarie
Investors should prefer the Canadian TSX Composite benchmark index in 2024 to the S & P 500 , according to Bank of America. Last year, while inflation was moderating, the TSX underperformed the S & P 500 by 16 percentage points. However, the Canadian index beat the S & P 500 in 2022 when inflation was investors' prime concern. According to FactSet, the P/E currently stands at 15.75x, lower than the 20.28x of the S & P 500. Canadian investors can access the index through the near-identical iShares Core S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF and BMO S & P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF .
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, FactSet, Kwon, SPX Organizations: Canadian, Bank of America, TSX, of America's, BMO, U.S Locations: of America's Canada, 15.75x, United States, Canada, Yom Kippur, Vietnam
Andrew Kelly | ReutersAfter years of unbridled consumer spending on everything from home improvement to dream vacations, some companies are now finding the limits of their pricing power. Nike last week lowered its annual sales growth forecast and unveiled plans to cut costs by $2 billion over the next three years. "Goods companies don't have the pricing power they did in the pandemic, and some in the hotel and travel [industries] — they don't have the pricing power they did in the immediate post-Covid," he added. Sales growth for companies in the S&P 500 is on track to average 2.7% this year, according to mid-December analyst estimates posted by FactSet. Consumer spending on apparel and groceries rose 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, from the year-earlier period, according to the survey.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mills, Joe Cavaretta, David Kelly, FactSet, Kelly, isn't, airfare, John F, Bob Jordan, Jordan, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: FedEx, Reuters, Shipping, Airlines, Target, Nike, Spirit Airlines, Hasbro, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Getty, Florida Sun, Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Mastercard, Starbucks, Airline, U.S . Department of Labor, Kennedy International, Southwest, CNBC, Detroit automakers, Toyota, Cox Automotive, Bank of America Locations: New York, speedier, Fort, South
Boomers have cash and appear to be weathering rising interest rates better than other generations, according to Bank of America. Because of this, the bank sees stocks particularly exposed to the well-off group that investors of all ages should buy. In contrast, Bank of America found millennials are the only generation with a meaningful amount of mortgage debt incurred after 2021, according to Bank of America. Bank data shows boomers have yet to feel the pinch from higher rates — and the wealthy subsection of the generation is actually benefitting from them. Given apparel is more prominent among millennials, Kwon pointed to Revolve as a short play.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, septuagenarians, Kwon, Welltower, Kwon's boomer, LSEG, — CNBC's Michael Organizations: Boomers, Bank of America, Bank of America . Bank, American, Service Corporation
Earnings will rise in Q3 and bring stocks along for the ride, according to Bank of America. Earnings estimates haven't budged in the last three months, which is better than the typical 4% pre-quarter drop. 10 stocks set for success as Q3 earnings reboundProfits have exceeded GDP by an average of 1.5 percentage points since 1950, according to BofA. Bank of AmericaHowever, Bank of America is confident that a new quarter will bring a clean slate for earnings. Below are 10 stocks that Bank of America believes are most likely to beat expectations in Q3.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Savita Subramanian, there's, Kwon, Subramanian, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, Wall, Bank of America Companies, Bank, Companies
And when analysts adjust future earnings estimates higher, share prices often move higher as well. And as Sam Burns knows, capitalizing on shifting analyst expectations can be a profitable investing strategy. In an interview with Insider, Burns explained that he's created a system that tracks analysts' estimates heading into earnings season. Stocks in the top 10% of ESS rankings are roughly three times more likely to see higher analyst estimates in the next month than stocks in the bottom 10%. And with those higher estimates often comes higher price movements.
Persons: Sam Burns, Burns, Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, he's, it's, Organizations: Mill, Research, Wall, Bank of America, Big Tech, Fed, Momentum
New York CNN —Earnings reports are coming thick and fast, showing how companies fared in the first few months of the year. But even as earnings are forecast to slump to their lowest level in three years, investors fear the worst is yet to come. This left significant gaps in the forensic search for Nazi-linked records, the Senate Committee stated. AlixPartners, according to the Senate committee, has indicated it will conduct a “supplementary review” of Credit Suisse’s connections to ratlines amongst other allegations. Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second-largest bank by assets and has spent the past few years plagued by scandals and large losses.
Forget inflation, it’s all about earnings
  + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
They noted that over the last three quarters, S&P 500 reactions to earnings beats and misses have soared higher and have now surpassed the one-day market reaction to both CPI inflation and Fed policy meeting decisions. Shares of Disney sank 13.16% last November — their lowest level in more than two years — when they missed earnings estimates. “We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” wrote Subramanian and Kwon. So we can expect some serious volatility over the next few weeks as companies report their fourth quarter corporate earnings. Bad news ahead: The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2022 is -3.9%, according to a FactSet analysis.
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